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Get the NewsletterGet in on the Gartner Hype: Emerging Technologies 2008
Gartner has released its latest Hype Cycle Research Report: Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008 . Of the 27 technologies they list as emerging technologies over the next few years, they predict that technologies like cloud computing, social computing, SOA and Web 2.0 will find their place in organizations within the next 2-5 years.
Every year Gartner takes the time to identify the emerging technology trends and keep us up to date on what technologies we should be closely looking at for our organizations. The report is authored by Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow, who also happens to be authoring a new book out in October called: Mastering the Hype Cycle: How to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time.
The Hype Cycle is an interesting view of how technologies are growing in importance or disappearing because they are becoming obsolete for one reason or another. Here is the Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008 — it encompasses where Gartner believes particular technologies will be over the next 10 years.
Hype Cycle for 2008
Technologies Expected to Plateau in 2-5 years
The Plateau of Productivity is the final stage in the Gartner Hype Cycle. It's here that they see a number of technologies finally gaining full acceptance and being highly used within organizations.
Green IT
It's not easy being green, but IT seems to have a responsibility to get there. Whether it's pressure from society or industry initiatives, Gartner believes now is the time to improve. Green IT is currently sitting at the Peak of Inflated Expectations — it has a way to go.
Cloud Computing
Also sitting close to the Peak of Inflated Expectations is Cloud Computing - something everyone talks about and every vendor wants in on. According to Gartner, “with the result that confusion and hype will continue for at least another year before distinct submarkets and market leaders emerge.”
Social Computing Platforms
No surprise to see this one coming up fast. Although currently hanging out in the Trough of Disillusionment, Social Computing Platforms for the enterprise will survive once organizations really start to understand how to implement them properly. The platforms will continue to grow beyond the basic social network as well into full-blown application platforms.
MicroBlogging
New to the list this year is Microblogging by the likes of Twitter, FriendFeed and Plurk. “The phenomenon has caught on among certain online communities, and leading-edge companies are investigating its role in enhancing other social media and channels.” It will be very interesting to see how this one plays out.
Other Notables Expected to Plateau
Over the next 2-5 years expect to see a few other technologies find their place:
- Service Oriented Business Applications
- Web 2.0
- SOA
- Wikis
- Social Network Analysis
How Things Have and Haven't Changed
Here's a quick view of the Hype Cycle from last year. Although Gartner says you can't see exact flow from one year to the next, it is interesting to compare where some emerging technologies were then and where they are now.
Hype Cycle for 2007
Some technologies like Web 2.0, SOA and wikis haven't moved much, and mashups have either disappeared or been renamed.
The Hype Cycle is an interesting read and you can gain insight into technologies you should be considering. If you are one of those organizations who is unhappy with the way Web 2.0, mashups and social networking solutions are rolling out for you, then this research report should give you hope that you can make them work and that others are trying just as hard as you to find the best way to incorporate them.
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Good stuff! Thanks for the summation.
nice to see web conferencing in there. i think integrated communication/collaboration solutions - synchronus+asynchronus communication will be a big hit in the years to come. that is, collaboration tools integrated with web conferencing.
Gartner Group Gaffs and "Web 2.0" Techno-Hype
The renowned Gartner Group's latest Hype Cycle report places "Web 2.0" in a "Trough of Disillusionment":
http://tinyurl.com/6ycvs8
But for a few good chuckles, I suggest you Google the following and browse the first 20-30 listings:
failures Gartner Group
warnings Gartner Group
Gartner Group expects
Gartner Group predicts
As for "Web 2.0?, like so many tech articles posted since Tim O'Reilly (or was it Dale Dougherty?) first coined the term in 2004 (or was it 2005?), this one references "Web 2.0" as if it were something tangible--or at least a concept with clear, concise definition. It is not. In 2006, Web founder Sir Tim Berners-Lee sagely observed that "nobody knows what it means":
http://tinyurl.com/y6ewzy
In 2007, Michael Wesch put together this video that supposedly "explains what Web 2.0 really is about":
http://tinyurl.com/6pdz2q
It is a cool video. But the message is all about XML and how it can be used to separate form and content. There was no mention of CSS and XHTML, but no matter. I was writing XML parsers in the '90s, and XHTML/CSS web design pre-dates "Web 2.0" as well.
And now in 2008, the most honest thing we can say is that "Web 2.0" means whatever the techno-marketeer (ab)using it wants it to mean. Otherwise, why would intelligent people like Isaac O'Bannon still be writing articles asking "What is Web 2.0?":
http://tinyurl.com/5solok
And, why would McKinsey's just-released best-of-breed report entitled "Building the Web 2.0 Enterprise" ...
http://tinyurl.com/6sxls7
... include no attempt at defining the term other than to list the "Web 2.0 Tools" that comprise or enable it? And even there, the chief ingredient is identified only as "Web Services", adding more mystery to the mix as one ethereal term is offered up to explain another.
As originated in an Onstartups.com website design posting...
http://tinyurl.com/576sgs
... "Web 2.0" is like pornography: Nobody has defined it; you just have to know it when you see it.
Bruce Arnold, Web Design Miami Florida
http://www.PervasivePersuasion.com