Gartner's Emerging Trends and Technologies Roadshow is happening right now and they are espousing their views on the 10 most disruptive technologies they believe will shape the IT landscape over the next five years. No surprise that social computing and mashups make the list. But did they forget something?
10 Most Disruptive Technologies
Here's the top 10 in it's entirety:
# Multicore and hybrid processors
# Virtualisation and fabric computing
# Social networks and social software
# Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
# Web mashups
# User Interface
# Ubiquitous computing
# Contextual computing
# Augmented reality
Social Networks and Social Software
According to Gartner analyst David Cearley, business IT applications will start to include features similar to those found in Web 2.0 social networking sites today like Facebook and MySpace.
“Social software provides a platform that encourages participation and feedback from employees and customers alike,” he said. “The added value for businesses is being able to collect this feedback into a single point that reflects collective attitudes, which can help shape a business strategy.”
Right. We call this Enterprise 2.0 and with the number of vendors offering business versions of these social software solutions -- including ECM vendors -- it's not surprising the technology is on this top 10 list. Just curious to know how much research Gartner had to do to figure this one out.
Gartner also predicts that by 2010, 80% of new enterprise applications will be based on web mashups. These mashups are a mix of content from publicly available sources. Again, no real surprise here considering that's all we hear about from enterprise vendors today, that and archiving of course.
Open Source is MIA
According to Matt Asay from the Road Ahead (and from open source CMS vendor Alfresco), this list seems to allude to open source's "omnipresence". He says that open source powers just about every technology on the list and that it is the "behind-the-scenes director making all these other technologies tick."
While one can't argue the role open source plays in many of these technologies, are there not as many proprietary solutions out there that provide the same capabilities? Maybe Matt's right when he says that maybe it's time to think of open source as simply plumbing (well he calls it "essential plumbing"), in which case it doesn't deserve special attention be called to it -- it's just a different brand of pipes.
Most of this is Not News
Curious to know who Gartner talked with to get their top 10 list. Or better yet, who paid to have the research done. Or maybe they just read Forrester's report on how Enterprise 2.0 will become a $US 4.6 billion dollar industry by 2013.
How about instead of just telling us what technologies are going to be at the forefront in the next few years, these analyst firms could tell us why an organization should implement them and how best to do that to get some actual value from the technology.