Boston Dynamics, Nest and DeepMind. In the past month, Google has gone on yet another acquisition binge, spending at least $4 billion on a trio of startups that seem only loosely connected — robotics, home automation and artificial intelligence, respectively. Is there a central strategy, and what does it mean to the future of Google, the Internet of Things and Customer Experience?
The Answer is Yes
Based on a pattern of deals and feedback from leading experts, it appears Google believes the future is heavily connected to data gathering, machine learning and automation, which all of these companies have in common.
"In a broader pattern, if Google is focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, how is this kind of semantic understanding going to help us make decisions faster and do our jobs, " said David Schubmehl, a research director with International Data Corp. (IDC). "We're still a ways away from (real AI). It's more about putting 10 to 15 connections together to help me handle a thinking process and make decisions faster."
Google's dealmaking has traditionally been prolific and wide-ranging. It has bought hundreds of companies in the past four years — averaging almost 50 per year. But the last three deals are emblematic of what Google likes and may provide a good vision of what consumer-facing technology will look like in a number of years. The sums paid were not small. Google paid $3.2 billion for Nest and $400 million for DeepMind (it didn't release the cost of Boston Dynamics).
"They're being quite aggressive. They can afford it with the cash and stock they have. It's smart, I believe, using their assets to keep up the influx of innovation into the company," said Mike Volpi, former head of Cisco Systems's M&A strategy and now a venture capitalist with Index Ventures.
What Google Likes
Let's follow the patterns. Here are the main things Google appears to like in its deals:
Smart People: Google no doubt makes deals where really smart people are involved. It clearly likes Nest Founder and CEO Tony Fadell, a former Apple design guru credited with designing the iPod. DeepMind was founded by neuroscientist and chess champion Demis Hassabis, who many consider to be a genius
Data: Google likes to buy things that have the capability to either collect or analyze data. Nest, for example, is a home-automation startup that produces a sophisticated thermostat and smoke detector, giving Google to access to a million or more homes. This gives it access to a larger swath of consumer data, much as when it bought Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion in 2011 it expanded its data connections with millions of mobile handsets.
Analytics and AI: Once you have the data, you need to do something with it. This is Google's strength, going all the way back to its first product, the search engine. If you take the data, analyze it, and process it, and you can provide value to people. That's Google's core function in a nutshell. It wants to take this further by introducing machine learning and eventual artificial intelligence (AI), which is basically an outgrowth of the functionality it provides in search.
Ambitions in AI
"They seem to have longer-term ambitions [in AI]," said Pedro Domingos, a professor of Computer Science at the University of Washington. " If you look at the kinds of things they have been buying and hiring, a lot of it looks like they are trying to solve AI. And, to provide search, at the end of the day, is to solve AI."
Critics have pointed out that despite all this activity, Google is still an advertising company and that many of "science experiments," such as the famous driverless car program, yield little to no business benefit. In making deals, Google rarely focuses on revenue or profits, though there are some specific cases, usually in advertising, such as its acquisition of DoubleClick for $3 billion in 2007.
James Whittaker, a technology executive and ex-Google employee, left Google and last year wrote a blog post lambasting Google's drift away from innovation and toward advertising, saying the company is now corrupted by its thirst to consume personal information:
- Why Agile As We Know It Will Disappear
- SWAM: When LinkedIn Locks Down Social Networking
- The Metamorphosis of the Social Enterprise
- Just How Badly Does Microsoft Want Your OneDrive Biz?
- ROI Is the Wrong Tool to Justify Social Investments
- Gartner MQ for ECM: Why the Leaders Stand Out
- Oops! Is Rackspace Rethinking its 99.99% Uptime Boast?