Editorial
The Gist
- AI becomes the holiday power shopper. Cyber Week data shows AI agents driving unprecedented purchase intent, out-converting social by 8x and influencing $67B in sales.
- Shoppers go ‘surgical’ in-store. Foot traffic drops across all U.S. regions, but visits are more targeted, mission-driven and value-focused.
- Mobile dominates every moment. More than 70% of Cyber Week orders were placed on phones, confirming mobile as the primary holiday shopping channel.
- A value-era consumer is reshaping demand. Shoppers are inflation-trained, deal-hungry and using AI as a precision tool to maximize confidence and control.
Despite years of increased ecommerce activity, this year’s Cyber Week signaled a definitive shift, moving away from the era of the "impulse holiday spree" toward more informed consumers shopping in-store with precision.
And, as you may have guessed: AI-based technology is augmenting their online shopping.
While physical stores saw consistent declines in foot traffic nationwide, digital channels broke records, driven by a massive surge in mobile usage and the adoption of AI agents. Exploring the 2025 holiday season is to tell a story of a consumer who is, according to RetailNext, "deal-hungry, inflation-trained," and willing to spend significantly, but only when empowered by tools that offer convenience and confirmed value.
Based on Cyber Week data from Salesforce, RetailNext and STORD, let’s take a closer look at what happened so far this holiday shopping season.
Table of Contents
- The 3 Biggest Trends: Agentic, Surgical and Mobile by Default
- Biggest Surprises of the Season
- Takeaways for Marketing Leaders
- Summary: AI Leaves Consumers Informed, in Control
The 3 Biggest Trends: Agentic, Surgical and Mobile by Default
The Explosion of 'Agentic Commerce'
Artificial intelligence has graduated from a customer service novelty to a primary driver of revenue and operations. Salesforce data confirms that AI agents are now an "incredible purchase and productivity accelerator in commerce."
According to Salesforce’s numbers:
- $67B for AI. AI and AI agents influenced 20% of all Cyber Week orders, accounting for $67 billion in global sales.
- AI agents speed up sales. Retailers that utilized branded AI agents grew sales 32% faster than those who did not.
- AI Agents get jobs done. The volume of tasks completed by agents, such as initiating returns or updating addresses, spiked by 70% compared to 2024.
The 'Surgical' In-Store Shopper
While a decline in brick-and-mortar foot traffic is likely not a surprise to anyone, these trips still serve an essential function to consumers. The physical store visit has evolved from open-ended browsing and impulse buys to mission-based shopping. According to RetailNext, consumers are visiting stores with specific goals rather than wandering for inspiration, resulting in a "consumer who is still spending, but doing it with surgical precision."
According to RetailNext data:
- Less foot traffic. Nationwide (U.S.) in-store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.6% overall, with declines consistent across every region (Midwest -3.8%, Northeast -3.9%, South -4.0%, West -2.8%).
- Apparel still sees visitors. While overall in-store visits declined, traffic to apparel retailers remained essentially flat (-0.6%), suggesting shoppers prioritized essentials over discretionary categories such as Home (-6.5%) and Footwear (-6.1%).
Mobile as Default Mode
Desktop or mobile? According to the data, it’s not even close. The smartphone has solidified its position as the clear choice for holiday shopping, driving the vast majority of traffic and purchases. Salesforce reported that mobile is now the "default for digital commerce."
According to Salesforce:
- Where's my phone? 78% of global online traffic and 70% of orders during Cyber Week originated from mobile devices.
- Turkey hangovers and scrolling. 75% of U.S. Black Friday orders were placed via mobile.
Retailers likely anticipated continued growth in mobile orders and increased their mobile marketing messages and promotions by 18% compared with 2024.
Related Article: Are You Ready for Agentic AI Shoppers as Customers?
Biggest Surprises of the Season
Of course, for those watching retail trends closely over the last several years, it might have been easy to predict an increase in AI usage and mobile shopping, along with a decrease in foot traffic to retailers. Yet, 2025 still had a few surprises in store (no pun intended).
The Staggering Surge in Health & Beauty Orders
While in-store data from RetailNext showed a 2.1% dip in Health & Beauty traffic, a generally resilient category, online orders for the sector saw unprecedented growth.
According to STORD’s numbers, there was a massive 7,143% year-over-year increase in orders shipped for Health & Beauty on the Monday before Thanksgiving. Salesforce data corroborated the category's digital strength, noting it as a top performer with 12% YoY sales growth on Cyber Monday. This suggests a massive channel shift where consumers are comfortable buying personal care items digitally in high volumes.
AI Agents Outperforming Social Media in Conversion
While social media drives traffic, AI agents are driving significantly higher purchase intent, challenging the assumption that social media is the king of discovery.
According to Salesforce, traffic referred by AI agent channels (like ChatGPT) converted at a rate 8x higher than traffic coming from social media platforms during Cyber Weekend. While social media drove roughly 15% of traffic in the U.S., AI-referred traffic tripled compared to last year, signaling that shoppers using AI are ready to buy, not just browse.
Order Volume vs. Foot Traffic Disparity
The sheer scale of the gap between physical retail declines and logistics/shipping volume explosions was sharper than anticipated.
RetailNext reported a national traffic decline of 3.6% for Black Friday. In sharp contrast, logistics data from STORD showed "Monday" orders shipped jumped 370% year-over-year, with massive triple-digit growth across multiple days. This confirms that the "pullback" seen in stores is not a pullback in spending, but a relocation of it.
Related Article: OpenAI's ChatGPT Instant Checkout: The Dawn of Conversational Commerce CX
Cyber Week 2025: Expectations vs. Reality
A combined snapshot of predicted trends and actual outcomes across AI, mobile, in-store behavior, category performance and logistics.
| Theme | What We Expected | What the Data Actually Showed |
|---|---|---|
| AI adoption in commerce | Moderate growth in AI-assisted shopping with chatbots supporting service tasks. | AI agents influenced $67B in sales, completed 70% more tasks YoY and drove 32% faster sales growth for brands using branded agents. |
| Mobile shopping behavior | Continued mobile growth, but balanced across desktop and phone. | Mobile became the default channel: 78% of traffic and 70% of orders came from phones; 75% of U.S. Black Friday orders were mobile. |
| In-store foot traffic | Stable or slightly declining foot traffic with mixed performance across regions. | Traffic fell 3.6% nationwide, down across every region. Store visits became mission-based, not browsing-driven. |
| Shopper purchase intent | Consumers would browse online and buy impulsively in-store or via social channels. | Shoppers acted with “surgical precision,” hunting for essentials and value. Social referrals underperformed; AI referrals converted 8x higher. |
| Category performance | Modest gains for Health & Beauty and steady performance for Apparel. | Health & Beauty orders exploded digitally (7,143% YoY for shipped items). Apparel remained stable in stores despite broad foot-traffic declines. |
| Influence of discovery channels | Social media expected to remain the top discovery and traffic driver. | AI-driven discovery surged. AI-referred traffic tripled YoY and converted 8x higher than social media traffic during Cyber Weekend. |
| Holiday logistics volume | A predictable, even distribution of orders across Cyber Week. | Massive volatility: “Monday” orders surged 370% YoY, and Apparel saw 1,321% YoY lifts on specific days — requiring agile fulfillment capacity. |
Takeaways for Marketing Leaders
So what are CMOs and other marketing leaders to do with all this information? While in many cases it may be too late for a major pivot within the 2025 Holiday Season, there are still plenty of things that can be done in 2026 and beyond.
Here are a few takeaways:
Invest in Branded AI to Capture 'High-Intent' Revenue
To take full advantage of the advantages (and increased sales) available, brands must move beyond basic chatbots and deploy AI-enabled shopping agents on their ecommerce sites.
The reason is clear, as Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, says: "We saw a massive shift in how consumers are finding products, with traffic from third-party AI agent channels tripling compared to last year. Our data shows that this AI-referred traffic converts at an impressive 8x the rate of traffic coming from social media platforms, proving that AI is quickly becoming the ultimate purchase accelerator, guiding consumers with clear intent straight to the buy button."
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Embrace the 'Value Era' Consumer
While expecting in-store shoppers to simply walk in empty-handed and walk out with bags full of merchandise may be a faulty assumption, there are still strategic ways that leaders can capitalize on a key trend. Brands should tailor messaging to appeal to the "surgical" shopper who is inflation-weary and prioritizes essentials and wellness over general discretionary goods.
According to Joe Shasteen of RetailNext, “The headline isn’t the drop in traffic, it’s what it confirms. The era of the impulse holiday spree is ending. Consumers are in control, and they’re treating Black Friday as one data point in a much longer hunt for value.”
The data describes a consumer who is, "making trade-offs in real time," with categories like Active Apparel and Health & Beauty performing well, while Home and Jewelry lag. Promotions should focus on "self-care essentials" and value-driven bundles to align with this mindset.
Optimize Logistics for Massive Daily Spikes
According to STORD data, the Monday before Thanksgiving saw an explosion of activity (370% increase in orders shipped), crushing Sunday's numbers. With specific categories like Apparel seeing 1,321% YoY lifts on certain days, fulfillment operations must be agile enough to handle sudden, vertical spikes in demand. Thus, supply chain leaders need to prepare for extreme volatility in daily shipping volumes rather than a smooth holiday curve.
Summary: AI Leaves Consumers Informed, in Control
Cyber Week 2025 confirmed several assumptions about the growth of AI and mobile, as well as the continued decline of in-store shopping as the catch all method to purchase gifts. It also demonstrated that the consumer is increasingly informed and in control, utilizing technology to hunt for value with greater precision.
While the in-store, impulse shopping spree may soon become a thing of the past, consumer spending remains resilient, channeled heavily through mobile devices and guided by AI. For retailers, success in 2026 will require meeting the consumer where they are: on their phones, interacting with AI agents and seeking definitive value in every transaction.
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